-ByAbdul Rafay
AbdulRafayisawriter,researcher,journalist,andsocialcriticwithadeeppassion for history, politics, and societal issues. His work challenges conventional narratives, offering thought-provoking insights into cultural and political complexities. Through his writing, he sparks meaningful dialogue and encourages deeper understanding of the world’s evolving dynamics.
As the final call to prayer of 2025 fades over Islamabad, a strange quiet hangs in the cold December air. It’s not peace, but the pause between two heartbeats, one of stubborn survival, the other of deep uncertainty. In a dimly lit café in Lahore, a young tech founder celebrates a million-dollarseedround,herphonebuzzingwithventurecapitalnotificationsfromSingapore. Justfifteenkilometresaway,inacrampedkitchen,herauntcalculateshowtostretchakiloof potatoesacrossthreemealsfortherestoftheweek,theghostof 26%average inflationhoveringoverherstove.ThisisthePakistanthatgreets2026:notonenation,buttwo parallel realities racing into thefuture on different tracks.Thestory of theyearjust past is the tale of this widening gap.
The year 2025 will be remembered as the year of the Great Exit. Early estimates suggestover850,000 Pakistanispacked their dreams into suit boards and left the country, a record- breaking exodus of skilled doctors, engineers, and IT graduates. They weren’t just seeking opportunity; they were fleeing a sinking feeling, a collective sigh at the relentless grind of makingendsmeet.Theirabsenceisasilentbleedonthenation’sfuture,leavingbehindempty chairs in hospitals, vacant desks in software houses, and a profound question: can a country thrive when its best and brightest are voting with their feet?
Yet, against thisgrimbackdrop,pockets oftheeconomy didn’t justsurvive; theythrivedwith adefiantroar.ThePakistanStockExchange(PSX)becameasymbolofthisbizarresplitreality. Whilemainstreetbusinessesstruggled,thePSX’sKSE-100indexskyrocketed,becomingone of theworld’s best-performing markets and adding overRs. 4 trillionin paper wealth. But this boom feltdistant, likecheeringfrom theshoreforaship you can’t board.Fortheaverage citizen, the market’s record highs were a flickering news ticker on a screen, entirely separate fromtherealityofpayingRs.350forakiloofflour.Thegovernment’sRs.18.9trillion
budgetpromisedreliefandgrowth,butitssuccesswasstrangledbythestrictconditionsof a$3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, forcing painful but necessary reforms that pinched households and businesses alike.
Amidst the struggle, however, Pakistanis planted flags of genuine achievement. The nation’s techstartupecosystemfinallyhititsstride,withfintechande-commercecompaniessecuring over $350 million in funding, proving Pakistani innovation has a global audience. In a monumental environmental victory, the countrysuccessfully completed the billion-tree tsunami project, restoring 350,000 hectares of degraded forest and showing a fierce commitmenttofightingclimatechange.Andontheworldstage,themen’scricketteam,against all odds, clinched a thrillingICC Champions Trophy victory, offering a rare, unifying moment of pure, undiluted national joy, a temporary balm for the national spirit.
But what was lost may outweigh what was won. Beyond the staggering brain drain, the year eroded trust. Trust in institutions frayed further. The social contract between people and state wore thin under the weight of utility bills and tax notices. Perhaps the most significant loss wasnational confidence, the shared belief in a collectively better tomorrow. This wasn’t a yearofcollapse,butofcorrosion,wherethedaily challengeofsurvivalchippedawayat hope.
So,wheredoes thepathforward liein2026?The answer isnotin asingle magicsolution,but in bridging the great split. The way forward is to connect the soaring stock market to the struggling shop floor. It requires moving beyond surviving IMF reviews to building a real, inclusive economy. First, theagriculture sectormust be transformed from a subsistence activity into a modern, tech-driven industry. Pakistan wastes enough food to feed its cities; fixing broken supply chains is a low-hanging fruit with massive payoff. Second, the energy sector’scircular debt monster, now bloated beyondRs. 2.3 trillion, must be slain once and for all with transparent reforms and investment in solar and wind, turning sunlight and wind into national assets, not just talking points.
Most critically, the government must shift from being a tax collector to a facilitator of business. The endless red tape that strangles small and medium enterprises (SMEs) must be cut.If2025wastheyearoftheexit,2026mustbecometheyearofthe “Stayand Build”movement.ThismeanscreatingincentivessopowerfulthatthetechgeniusinKarachi choosestoscalehercompanyinLahore,notinLondon.Itmeansensuringthebrilliantgraduate fromapublicuniversityinPeshawarseesafutureforhistalentsinFaisalabad,notinFrankfurt.
What we lack is not potential, butconsistency and connection. We lack the follow-through that turns policies into results. We lack the critical infrastructure, reliable courts, predictable regulations, uninterrupted power, that connects a farmer’s yield to a foreign market and a student’s code to a global app store. We have courage in crisis, but need constancy in vision.
Asthefirst dawnof2026 breaks, painting thesnows ofNangaParbat pink, Pakistan stands at its owncrossroads. One path leads to a deepersplit, where atiny island of prosperity floats in aseaofstruggle.Theother,harderpathleadstoabridge.Itisbuiltwiththebricksoftaxreform thatfeelsfair,withthesteelofenergythatstayson,andwiththemortarofajusticesystemthat works for the street vendor as it does for the tycoon.The choice for 2026 is not about finding a new leader or a new loan. It is about choosing to build that bridge, one stubborn, hopeful brick at a time. The true Happy NewYear will not come from a clock striking midnight, but from a nation deciding, at last, to walk forward together.
