NadeemMirbahar

The essential flows of the Indus River, including environmental flows, are vital for the survival of urban and rural areas, as well as forests,freshwaterecosystems,agriculture,andthedeltaicsystemin downstreamSindh.TheseflowssustainmajorcitiessuchasKarachi, Sukkur, Larkana, Khairpur, Benazirabad, Hyderabad, Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, and Thatta.

Yet,fewtrulygrasptheurgencyofthiscrisis,despiteitsdirect connectiontofoodsecurity,livelihoods,andeconomicstabilityfora rapidly growing population.

ClimateChange,PopulationGrowth,andChanging Landscapes

Risingtemperaturesandclimatechangeareacceleratingglacialmeltin the Himalayas, altering the Indus River’s flow and increasing the risk of long-term water shortages.

Arapidlygrowingpopulation,expandingagriculture,andincreasing industrial demand are placing immense pressure on the river’s already dwindling resources.

EmergingWaterConflicts

Water shortages within Pakistan, particularly in Sindh, could escalate inter-provincialandfederaldisputesoverIndusRiverwaterallocation, increasing tensions and conflicts.

Unilateral and unplanned upstream projects, such as the construction of new canals and water diversions, pose serious threats to downstream provinces,raisingfearsofreducedwaterflows,ecosystemdamage,and economic losses.

GlacialMelt,UnpredictableWeather,andDisasters

Theacceleratedmeltingofglaciersandshiftingprecipitation patterns—evident in the catastrophic 2022 floods that submerged one-thirdofPakistan—aredisruptingthenaturalflowoftheIndus,

increasingthelikelihoodofbothextremefloodsandprolongeddroughts.

InSindh,the2022floodsresultedin:

• 799fatalities
• 8milliondisplaced
• 2millionhouses.
• Damageto13,000kilometersof
• 4millionacresofagriculturalland.

The reduction of river flow, combined with rising sea levels, is causingsaltwaterintrusionintheIndusDelta,devastatingecosystems, agricultural lands, and freshwater sources.

Human-InducedDegradation

Industrial pollution and untreated wastewater are contaminating the limitedwaterthatstillreachesdownstream,threateningaquaticlifeand water quality, making it unusable for human and wildlife consumption.

Theabsenceofsufficientriverflowwillleadto:

• Zerosedimentationinagriculturallandsandthedelta,impacting soil fertility, crop productivity, and fisheries.
• Destruction of mangroves and carbon sinks in coastal areas, leadingtoacollapseofmarinefisheriesresourcesandworsening nutritional issues in coastal cities like Karachi, Thatta, and Badin.
• Deteriorating air quality, accelerating respiratory diseases and increasingprematuredeaths,particularlyinSindh’smajorcities.
• Unfoldingclimatedisastersduetotheabsenceofriverflow, making it impossible to control environmental degradation.
• Severe disruptions to freshwater lakes, agriculture, livestock, fisheries,poultry,fruitproduction,medicinalplants,livelihoods,the cotton industry, vegetable farming, and supply chains.

• Portoperationsandexportswillsuffer,asenvironmentalinstability and freshwater shortages impact industrial activities, trade, and

Remember!

• AnyshortageofwaterintheIndusRivercouldtriggeran irreparable disaster for Sindh.
• Peoplewillfacehunger,diseaseoutbreaks,environmentalcrises, drinking water shortages, rising food prices, and worsening
• ThedepletionofIndusRiverflowswilldismantleSindh’s socio-economic systems.
• Once-thrivingagriculturalandurbancommunitieswillbepushed deeper into poverty and food insecurity.
• Millions may be forced to migrate, suffering severe consequences—just as the people of the Indus Delta have been displacedduetoenvironmentaldevastationcausedbytheriver’s declining flow over the past several decades. Vast stretches of once-fertile land have already turned into barren landscapes.
• Those who are well-off in other regions may not yet realize the gravityofthesituation,butifthiscrisiscontinues,theytoocould one day find themselves standing in lines seeking relief.

WhatCanYouDo?

Take a moment each day to learn at least one new fact about how your lifeisconnectedtotheIndusRiver—andwhatcouldhappenifitswaters are diverted, leaving it to run dry.

NextSteps

1. MonitorRiverFlows:Stayinformedandengageindiscussionsthat influence policies ensuring essential Indus River flows.

2. ConnectwithExperts:Collaboratewithwaterscientists,climate experts, and data analysts to better understand the crisis.

3. DevelopEmergencyPlans:Prepareforpotentialwatershortages, extreme weather events, and socio-economic disruptions.

4. UrbanandRuralPreparedness:Strengthenresilienceinbothurban and rural communities to withstand water crises and food insecurity.

5. Anticipate Future Challenges: Consider conflict scenarios, mass displacement,andeconomicrepercussions,ensuringSindhisreadyto face the consequences of water scarcity.

AboutAuthor:

NadeemMirbahar,ExpertonIUCNCommissiononEcosystem Management,

PhDCandidateandaResearchScholar.

(I am a PhD candidate and researcher who completed an MPhil focusedontheMarineProtectedAreasofPakistan.Iamaffiliated as an expert with the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Commission on Ecosystem Management and serve as a member of the Global Regeneration Lab based in the USA)