By: Maria Iruj
Research Consultant, Abu Dhabi University
Each winter, Pakistan’s largest cities disappear beneath a suffocating haze. Lahore – once celebrated as the “City of Gardens”has become one of the most polluted cities in the world. Karachi – the city of lights and nation’s economic hub spends much of the year under toxic skies that overwhelm commuters, strain hospitals and burden families grappling with mounting healthcare costs. The World Air Quality Report consistently ranks Pakistan among the most polluted countries globally—an alarming and tragic distinction.
This is not a seasonal nuisance but it is a public health emergency. Research shows that air pollution reduces the average Pakistani’s life expectancy by several years. Children are growing up with weakened lungs while Adults face rising rates of asthma, bronchitis and cardiovascular disease. Families are paying with their health for air they cannot choose to avoid.
The causes are well known as vehicle emissions rise unchecked due to low-quality fuel and weak enforcement of standards. Factories continue to release pollutants with little oversight. Farmers with limited alternatives, burn crop residues every season, creating thick smoke that mixes with urban pollution. Open waste burning in cities adds another poisonous layer. Despite knowing the sources, our national response has been outdated, piecemeal, and inadequate.
The Failure of the Current System
Pakistan’s air quality monitoring infrastructure is fragmented and weak. A handful of monitoring stations exist, mostly clustered in major cities, leaving large populations without reliable data. The information available is often delayed, inconsistent, and prohibitively expensive to expand nationwide.
This lack of reliable monitoring leaves both citizens and policymakers navigating blindly through a crisis that hovers over their heads. The reality is simple: we cannot protect what we cannot measure. And in the absence of actionable data, smog has been treated as an unavoidable part of life—an invisible killer we tolerate because we believe there is no alternative.
But an alternative does exist and it lies in a field that is already transforming economies worldwide: artificial intelligence.
AI: A Smarter Way Forward
In my recent study, Predictive Modeling of Urban Air Quality in Karachi Using Machine Learning and Open-Source Satellite Data (published May 2025 in the Spectrum of Engineering Sciences), my colleagues and I demonstrated how Pakistan can leapfrog its outdated monitoring systems.
By combining AI with open-source satellite datasets from NASA and the European Union’s Copernicus program, we can build predictive, cost-effective models to forecast pollution spikes before they occur.
The concept is straightforward: instead of depending solely on ground-based sensors, which are expensive and limited, AI can process real-time satellite images and meteorological data to map and forecast pollutant movement. Using advanced neural networks—such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models—these systems can predict smog events days in advance, giving authorities and citizens the chance to prepare.
Advantages of this approach:
• Affordability: Relies on freely available satellite data instead of thousands of costly sensors.
• Scalability: A model developed for Karachi can be replicated in Lahore, Faisalabad, or Gujranwala with minimal extra cost.
• Proactive Action: Forecasts allow policymakers to divert traffic, restrict industrial activity, or discourage stubble burning before conditions worsen.
Our research demonstrated that AI-driven models can capture the complex dynamics of pollutants like PM2.5, PM10, and nitrogen dioxide with remarkable accuracy. In short: the science is ready.
Learning from Other Countries
Pakistan is not alone in facing an urban air crisis. India, China, and Southeast Asian nations also grapple with smog. However, some of them are responding with technology. Beijing, once infamous for choking pollution, has reduced its crisis by combining strict industrial controls with predictive air quality models. India is deploying low-cost sensor networks and satellite-assisted monitoring across its states.
The lesson is clear: countries that harness technology gains the ability to manage their crises better. Those that do not are left gasping for breath.
What Must Be Done
The tools and data already exist. What Pakistan lacks is urgency and political will. Occasional advisories from the Ministry of Climate Change are not enough. This requires an integrated national strategy.
• The Ministry of Climate Change must adopt AI-based forecasting systems as part of its clean air agenda.
• The Punjab and Sindh Environment Protection Departments should serve as pilot sites for integrating predictive models into smart city frameworks.
• The Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency (Pak-EPA) must move beyond token monitoring and embrace real-time, data-driven policymaking.
Yet technology alone is not the solution but it is about governance. Predictive models are only as effective as the governance backing them. If warnings are ignored, if industries are allowed to pollute unchecked, if farmers are not provided alternatives to stubble burning, then AI will merely produce elegant charts while Pakistanis continue to suffer.
A Call for Urgency
Imagine Lahore where, weeks before smog season, the government already knows when air quality will plummet. Schools adjust schedules. Hospitals prepare for respiratory emergencies. Farmers are given alternatives to burning crops. Industries are warned to scale down output. Citizens receive alerts on their phones.
This vision is achievable—but only if leaders act decisively because smog is not a natural disaster. It is the result of human negligence and weak policy. And it will continue to shorten lives unless we muster the courage to fight it with the tools at our disposal.
The choice is clear: stop reacting and begin predicting. Pakistan has the talent and the technology. What it needs is urgency.
Smog is not inevitable. It is preventable. The question is whether our leaders will rise to meet the challenge—or allow the air itself to remain a silent executioner.
