Dr. Syed Mehboob
Political and Economic Analyst
http//:www.thenewslark.com
drmehboob.thenewslark@gmail.com
Indonesia has made significant progress since its independence in 1945 and is expected to continue its journey towards a peqceful, prosperous, welfare country. It wil complete one hundred years of its inependence in 2045 and till than it is expected it will be world’s 4th largest economy by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and 8th largest economy by Nominal. It is also expected that it will become high income economy and will come out of middle income trap by 2038. It wants to be a resilient, prosperous, inclusive, and sustainable powerhouse, and to become an inspirational lighthouse from Association of South East Asian Nation ( ASEAN) . “ Bhinneke Tuggal Ika “ and “ Gotong Royong “ philosophy emphasizes the spirit of working together, unity, integrity and sharing resources and benefits.
For its development, progress, prosperity and to become a high income nation it has set fourteen sectoral road-maps, as strategic growth themes :-
- Boost resiliency: Building unrivalled health resiliency and establishing a self-sustaining food security ecosystem, targeting:
— Top 20 Global Food Security Ranking, out of 113 countries
— >6 index score in Global Biopharma Resilience
- Foster prosperity: Grow high value sectors through unlocking lighthouses in strategic manufacturing sectors, leapfrogging growth in financial services, building world-class ecotourism destinations, unleashing global creative players, and accelerating MSME growth to mid-size, globally competitive companies, targeting:
— High-income economy by 2038
GDP per capita will surpass the high-income threshold of ~$14,600,
reaching $15,700 by 2038.
Indonesia’s growth potential
- Strengthen inclusivity: Becoming the role model of end-to-end transformation of healthcare ecosystem, and empowering the vulnerable population, targeting:
— Equal opportunities: >60% women’s labour participation, <0.3 Gini coefficient, Top 20 globally in PISA score, >70 score in skill set of graduates
— Higher life expectancy: >80 years for both male and female, Child mortality <5 per 1000 births,
<10% stunting prevalence
— Improved infrastructure quality: >90 score in infrastructure quality
- Advance sustainability: Becoming the world reference in innovative and affordable
De-Carbonization, and setting up the world’s largest hub for green business build to reach Net Zero by 2060, targeting:
— ~50% Renewable power generation mix
— Top carbon credits issuer
— ~50% of 4W, 3W, 2W and buses electrified
— ~25% of smallholders practice regenerative farming practices
- Key enablers: Ensuring future-ready human capital, an integrated, accessible, and affordable infrastructure, transversal technologies for all and global quality leadership with local wisdom
Each sectoral roadmap lays out 3 key aspects: context and challenges to understand where Indonesia is now, bold moves to explore key activities to be done in the next 22 years, and key metrics to identify specific targets. The bold moves are strategic initiatives that will
unlock the growth of the sector or unleash the enabler for broader sectors. Through a GDP impact assessment, without executing the bold moves, Indonesia potentially will only reach ~65% of the 2045 GDP target Indonesia is projected to reach ~90- 110% of the 2045 GDP target. Indonesia can confidently chart its course, towards a resilient, prosperous, inclusive, and sustainable growth.
Indonesia has demonstrated remarkable growth since its independence in 1945 and is expected to further continue its development. By 2045, 100 years after its independence, Indonesia is projected to be the world’s 4 th largest economy (by GDP PPP) and the 8th largest economy (by real GDP).
This projected growth translates to 2.5-fold surge in real GDP from current $1.1 trillion in (17th largest economy), reaching $2.8 trillion in the next 18 years. This trajectory signifies a momentous leap beyond Indonesia’s current standing, Under these projections, Indonesia will become a highincome economy and escape the middle-income trap by 2038, similar to Bappenas 2025-2045 RPJPN projections.
GDP Per Capita will surpass the high-income threshold of ~$14,600, reaching $15,700 by 2038
Indonesia has prioritized its manufacturing sector to develop the economy into the top ten largest economies by 2045. Indonesia’s manufacturing potential is enormous to foster prosperity. Currently ranked as the twelfth largest manufacturing economy in the world,
with a manufacturing sector growth rate of 4%, Indonesia is projected to be the seventh largest manufacturing economy globally by 2045.
To achieve this goal, the Ministry of Industry (MoI) launched a “Making Indonesia 4.0” road-map prioritizing six key sectors: food and beverages (including tobacco), automotive, chemicals, textiles, electronics, and medical devices.
The Golden Indonesia 2045 Vision is an Indonesian ideal that set the goal for the country to be sovereign, advanced, fair and prosperous by its centennial in 2025. To goal is set in 2045, since then Indonesia will commemorate hundred years of its independence. The vision was formulated by the Ministry of National Development Planning and was and was launched by Indonesian President Joko Widodo on 9 May 2019. The shared national vision—that in the future Indonesia will transition from a modest agriculture and raw commodity-based developing country into an advanced industrial, service and technology-based developed nation—has been contemplated for generations. During Suharto‘s New Order administration around 1970s to mid 1990s, the planning took form as Garis-Garis Besar Haluan Negara (GBHN) or outlines of state’s policy, aimed for Lepas Landas or “take-off” as the country gradually transformed into a newly industrialized country. However, the 1997 Asian financial crisis hit Indonesia hard, which caused the economic contraction and crippled the development. Subsequently, the crisis sparked the unrest and reformation movement that led to the fall of Suharto regime.
In the several years following the turn of the 21st century, Indonesian economy has recovered, and the rising trends of economic growth and development continues. After 10 years, Indonesia has succeed weather the storm, transformed itself from a chaotic almost-failed state in 1998, into a thriving democratic society, also one of the strongest economy in Asia by 2007. This has led to a more optimistic outlook regarding Indonesian future. In 2009 Indonesia was admitted as a member of G20 among world’s major economies, thus become a sole representative of Southeast Asian region.
In June 2013, in his speech in Bali, President Susilo Bambang udhoyono expressed his high hopes; that in the 100th Anniversary of the Republic of Indonesia, the nation would rise to become a developed country in terms of economic, political, and social aspects, and also exercise considerable international influence in the region. He said; “I have a vision and a dream that in 2045 our economy will be truly strong and just, our democracy will mature, and our civilization will flourish.”
Moreover, Indonesia is predicted to enjoy demographic onus between 2030 and 2040, that will boost Indonesian development towards vision 2045 as a developed nation. By that time, the number of workforce or the population of productive age (aged 15–64 years old) is greater than the population of non productive age (aged at under 15 years and above 64 years old). During this period, the population of productive age is predicted to reach 64 percent of the total projected Indonesian population of 297 million.
A model of N-245. Indonesia is also pursuing science and technology mastery, among others by developing its own aviation industry.
On 30 December 2015 in Merauke, President Joko Widodo wrote his vision titled “Indonesian Dream 2015–2085”. In his notebook he wrote seven dreams of lofty goals for Indonesian future, they are:
- Indonesian human resources whose intelligence outperforms other nations in the world
- Indonesian people who uphold pluralism, cultured, religious, and uphold ethical values
- Indonesia is the center of education, technology and world civilization
- Society and government apparatus are free from corruption
- Equitable infrastructure development throughout Indonesia
- Indonesia is an independent and free country and one of the most influential in the Asia Pacific
- Indonesia is a benchmark (example) of world economic growth
We as friend of Indonesia wish best of the luck for Indonesia and pray for its success.
