Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan
The Israel-Palestinian war entered into a new phase when Israel launched an air strike on Iranian Embassy in Syria killing two Iranian generals and few other military officials belonging to Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The attack has been seen as an offensive strike of war inviting Iran to direct confrontation with the Zionist state of Israel. However, the retaliation came as expected by many scholars of the International Relations. Iran chose to launch a series of drone strikes on Israeli mainland thereby balancing the breach of its sovereignty.
As we stand in the mid of April of 2024, the geopolitical theatre of the middle-east is heralding a new era where many other geopolitical players are entering the war ground with Iran being the latest one to join in. The pertinent question that arises here is why would a state like Israel already engaged with the Palestinian freedom fighters and other hostile neighbors want to engage another regional power like Iran on a new front?
To assess this question, it is important to first appreciate the realpolitik involved in the situations. First, Israel knows that Iran is an arch foe of USA to whom Israel is loosing ties due to indifferences. Second, by engaging Iran the focus of the war would shift from Palestine to Iran and would lessen the moral pressure on the Zionist regime. Third, confronting Iran would bring USA, even unwillingly, to Israel’s support, as American interests would be seriously jeopardized in the region. Fourth, the political optics shows that NetanYahu has lost favor from among his voter base as the country is heading for upcoming elections. By opening up a new front, he would dispense with the elections and consolidate himself as a populist leader of Israelis. Fifth, Israeli authorities have an apprehension that Iran’s air force is not capable enough to compete with the American hardware vastly deployed around Israel for its defense, so they feel pretty secure under the shadow of American air defense technology.
The aforementioned points draws out few potential underpinnings of Israeli regime to engage Iran in a direct confrontation. However, there is a clear warning from United States that it would not endorse any further attack by Israel that could spiral a new war in the region.
Supposing the remote possibility of an all-out-war between Israel and Iran, the rest of the world cannot stand as a bystander and escape the consequences. One of the primal consequences would disruption of critical sea-lanes that sources 65% of global oil supplies from the gulf countries. The Houthi forces sitting in coastal belts of Yemen could potential block the chokepoints connecting red sea with the Arabian Sea.
This would not end here, the Hezbollah, poses serious threat to Israel and is fully backed by Iran as its proxy in the region. Hezbollah has been treated as an evolving long term security threat by Israel, that as of now, is reported to possess abundant quantities of missile and drone that can hit Israel in a matter of few minutes due to territorial proximity.
But as a result of any such misadventure, the Lebanon would face the worst consequences as it did in Israel-Hezbollah war 2005 and in consequent periods following it.
In every scenario, the sufferings and plight of innocent Palestinians would even become worse. There appears to be no tangible solution to the disproportionate Israel-Palestine war where the world is only dismissing the situation as a mere spectator.
However, it is highly needed that Muslim countries such as Turkey, Malaysia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, UAE, Qatar and Indonesia should pursue a robust foreign policy to achieve a truce and bring an end to the disproportionate, immoral and illegitimate treatment of Palestinians at the hands of Israel.
The writer is a lawyer and a columnist. He tweets as Khan_kgk.
