Saeed Ahmed Sethar
My post on a reputed Professional Forum-page, dated 15/03/2020 is reproduced for reference: ‘May be we have over reacted on Corona issue, by seeing the weather conditions of Pakistan this is not a high degree threat’
Although the above statement was posted without details, but it was posted with full surety and confidence. This was only possible because of in depth study of the available worldwide data, research papers and the recent comments/ observations of the local Experts , Govt Officials and High-ups of the State.
Now I would like to put up the details on which my statement, dated 15/03/2020 was based.
1. The very first incident of Covid-19 positive was reported in Karachi, but at the same time his entire family, living with him in the same house tested negative.
2. So far Govt of Sindh has confirmed positive Covid-19 cases in hundreds and these results came with limited testing facilities available. Whereas the actual figure must be very high. However, by the grace of ALLAH no mortality has so far been reported in Sindh. The one reported today must had died by any other ailment, though he might also be Covid-19 patient
The above facts support my earlier statement, dated 15/03/2020 that the climatic conditions here do not fever the Virus, If the spread had been fast family members of the affected person as at S.No (1) above should have tested positive.
The figure of infected persons in Sindh is in hundreds, who have been tested positive ( maybe in thousands in reality) but the mortality is almost zero . The Intlernational figure for mortality rate is above 2% of the patients tested positive.
The above confirmed facts when compared with Global figures give firm belief that the climatic conditions here are not supporting the virus, hence this is not as dangerous as being reported to the extent to put the entire Nation in panic and shatter the economy.
I have proved with facts and figures below that Covid-19 intensity in Pakistan is very weak. The climatic conditions do not support it (except of some Northern parts of the Country). The blessing might be comparatively high temperatures in combination with high uv radiations from the Sun. Where ever on the Globe such climatic conditions are persisting we see that Covid-19 activity is weak enough to the extent that either there is not a single mortality or very negligible in numbers.
Definitely, our Experts will go through my observations and findings from all the angles and surely confirm the authenticity.
The facts and figures given above at S No 1) and 2) are not challenge able as these are the official narratives of the Government. However the Experts may make this Case as debatable and put forward other reasons for extreme low mortalities. Someone might even say that the mortality rate in Sindh is near zero because of the miracle of the Chief Minister , being a Syed and Shah, he can show such miracles. However, what so ever the Experts fix the cause of negligible mortalities, the facts are established one.
Here, I will further add that billons and billons of rupees of the National Exchequer are being spent on Covic-19 and much more huge financial losses are being experienced by the Nation from crash of stock market, shutting down of business and factories, the transport system etc.The people living below poverty line and earning their lively hood on day to day bases have reached at the verge of hunger. specially here in Karachi. If this continues for weeks or a month or so, the situation may become adversely worst and may go out of hands of all. People may start to die from hunger. Many social problems might emerge, like street crimes, theft and even might go to the extent of looting and kidnapping.
In the above situation I urge the Federal and the Provincial Governments to look into all aspects in depth , Although the Sindh government has acted swiftly In their own view to minimize the spread and reduce the deaths figure. This apparently seems excellent but when seen in bigger picture the situation is not so good but rather devastating one. It is the first time ever that the Sindh as well as to some extent the Federal Government are so active . We are already having many epidemics in this Country like hepatitis, tuber-calluses, HIV Positive , Water born Diseases and so on Only the Deaths from Hepatitis in Pakistan are above 1,50,000 per year, because 10% of our total population is suffering from hepatitis which is extraordinary high and very alarming. By other epidermis also there is a huge number of mortalities but sorry to say all Government Agencies as well as High-ups are silent, Initiating not a single war footing action but seeing towards WHO to come up and rescue.
If only a fraction of current financial burden(in other wards loss) had been spent on supplying clean drinking water and basic health facilitates,the epidemics would have been controlled to a great extent saving hundreds of thousands of lives per year.
In view of the above my recommendations are as:
1. The High-ups of the Nation as well as the Media Personals are requested to please stop creating Havoc / Panic in the Society and deal the issue sensibly with taking all the precautionary measures. Obviously, our Governments are following footsteps of the developed Countries who can spent trillions of dollars on this issue. According to an Urdu saying’ NAKAL KE LIYE BHI AKAL KI ZARURAT HOTI HY” fits here as the current drastic actions of the Governments will be creating many other social and financial issues which will be incurable and extremely harmful for the Nation in future.
2. The Experts to assess actual severity in light of climatic conditions of Pakistan in comparison with other Countries of the World have similar weather conditions and solar uv radiation activity. The positive results will surely help the Nation to get back to its normality.
3. In addition to all necessary precaution everybody should also keep his house, office etc. properly ventilated to ensure fresh air circulation and penetration of sun light & uv radiations as far as possible. The Air conditioning Systems may be switched off for the time being where ever possible and fans be run. 4) If the experts allow, take twice a day sun bath (i.e. in morning & evening) and also expose hands to uv rays from Sun few times a day.
4. Chemical use, such as sprays etc being hazardous to human health must be minimized as they do more harm then any benefit.
5. Artificial uv-beams may be used with due care for cleaning the virus from the buildings where the natural light is insufficient.
6. For the Governments if to go to World Bank or IMF for help in this matter , this must be done with due diligence and considering the future risk factor.
In the end I would like to again request the stack holders not to create or be panicked , observe normal precautionary measures and get the system to its normality as soon as possible. When 500 hundred to 800 hundred mortalities per day are existing from epidemics and contaminated water in the Country which are otherwise curable than no reason of existing Panic/Havoc and showing over smartness. If few tens very weak and already suffering from other ailments die by Corona, this is nothing as as compared to 500 to 800 deaths each day from incompetency and slackness of the State High-ups. Media should also discourage such attitude in the interest of National Economy and survival of the poor of poor.